{"id":1610,"date":"2023-07-02T22:41:29","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T13:41:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/?p=1610"},"modified":"2023-07-02T22:51:42","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T13:51:42","slug":"game-theory-semi-separating-equilibrium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/2023\/07\/game-theory-semi-separating-equilibrium\/","title":{"rendered":"Game Theory : Semi-Separating \/ Partially-Pooling Equilibrium"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Topics: Semi-Separating Equilibrium, Partially-Pooling Equilibrium<br>(semi-separating is the more common label)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"547\" src=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1024x547.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1024x547.png 1024w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-768x410.png 768w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1536x820.png 1536w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-2048x1093.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It was a terrorist group as Robust with probability .4 and Vulnerable with probability .6 the group<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"644\" src=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1-1024x644.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1616\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1-1024x644.png 1024w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1-768x483.png 768w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1-1536x966.png 1536w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-1-2048x1288.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>then chooses whether to commit an attack or not if the group attacks<br>then player 2 who is the target chooses whether to resist or ignore payoffs are as follows<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If player 1 does not attack everyone receives a status quo outcome of 0<br>If player 1 attacks and player 2 ignores then player 1 gets a point for a successful attack and player 2 loses a point for the same reason<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key difference between the types is what happens following resistance the vulnerable group will completely fall apart<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Robust Type<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s get to solving this we begin by noting that the Robust type clearly must attack it receives either 3 or 1 by doing so in contrast it receives 0 by not attacking<br>Thus no matter how player 2 acts the Robust type finds attacking more profitable<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vulnerable Type<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Now let&#8217;s see if we can describe the vulnerable types action using the types of equilibria<br>we have covered previously suppose the vulnerable type separates by not attacking<br>then conditional on observing an attack player 2 knows it is facing the Robust type it chooses to ignore and receive -1 instead resisting and receiving -3 given this does the vulnerable type have a profitable deviation indeed it does bluffing is just too attractive<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>* Bluffing: a strategical method of demonstrating one\u2019s unpredictability<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Separating?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>If it were to attack player 2 would ignore under the False assumption that player 1 is Robust<br>This allows the Vulnerable type to receive one which is better than the 0 it earns by maintaining its strategy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pooling?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-2-1024x296.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-2-1024x296.png 1024w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-2-300x87.png 300w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-2-768x222.png 768w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-2-1536x445.png 1536w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-2-2048x593.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-global-color-8-color\">u(resist) = .4(-3) + .6(2) = 0<br>u(ignore) = .4(-1) + .6(-1) = -1<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>for a total payoff of 0 if she ignores she receives negative one regardless of the opposing type<br>Because 0 is greater than -1 she chooses to resist given this does the vulnerable type have a profitable deviation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It does once more now the vulnerable types Bluff backfires it earns negative two for sticking with its strategy whereas it can secure zero by not attacking as such we cannot find any equilibria given our current tools<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Semi-Separating Equilibrium<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Each type does not take the same action<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Each type does not take a distinct action<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This is where semi-separating equilibrium comes into play it is best to define semi-separation in terms of what it is not a set of strategies where each type takes the same action<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"669\" src=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-3-1024x669.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1634\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-3-1024x669.png 1024w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-3-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-3-768x502.png 768w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-3-1536x1004.png 1536w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-3-2048x1339.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It is also not a set of strategies where each type takes a distinct action<br>rather sometimes a type will mimic another type and sometimes it won&#8217;t in our game if the vulnerable type is not playing a pure strategy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Remember me Indifference Conditions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>indifference conditions when solving for a semi separating equilibrium<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The vulnerable type mixes for a player to be willing to mix all strategies within the mixture must produce the same expected payoff<br>otherwise one option would be better and the player would always want to pursue that option instead<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>notice that attacking can give either the vulnerable type of payoff of negative two or one not attacking generates zero<br>thus to make the vulnerable type indifferent player two must mix between resist and ignore<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-5-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1643\" width=\"426\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-5-851x1024.png 851w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-5-249x300.png 249w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-5-768x924.png 768w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-5.png 1150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 426px) 100vw, 426px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>and if we remember our indifference conditions, we can quickly solve for player two&#8217;s mixed strategy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-global-color-8-color\">u(attack) = \\(\\sigma_R(-2) + (1-\\sigma_R)(1) = 1 &#8211; 3\\sigma_R\\)<br>u(no attack) = 0<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>let Sigma R be the probability she resists<br>then we need to find the value of Sigma R such that the utility for attacking equals the utility for not attacking<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>attacking generates negative two Sigma R a portion of the time and 1, 1 &#8211; Sigma R portion of the time<br>not attacking gives the vulnerable type 0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-global-color-8-color\"><strong>\\(1-3\\sigma_R = 0, \\sigma_R = 1\/3\\)<\/strong><\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>if we work out the math Sigma R equals one-third(1\/3)<br>that&#8217;s what generates indifference<br>this will be player two&#8217;s equilibrium strategy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>we still don&#8217;t know the vulnerable types strategy however<br>what we do know is that player two must mix and for player two to mix she also must be in difference between her two pure strategies<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>what makes this slightly complicated is that player two&#8217;s belief depends on the vulnerable types mix strategy<br>for now let&#8217;s call her belief P this represents her belief that she is facing a robust type<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"286\" src=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-1024x286.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1649\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-1024x286.png 1024w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-300x84.png 300w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-768x214.png 768w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-1536x428.png 1536w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-2048x571.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-global-color-8-color\">u(resist) = p(-3) + (1-p)(2) = 2 &#8211; 5p<br>u(ignore) = p(-1) + (1-p)(-1) = -1<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>if she resists she earns &#8211; 3 P portion of the time<br>and to 1 &#8211; P portion of the time<br>if she ignores she receives -1 regardless<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-global-color-8-color\">2 &#8211; 5p = -1, p = 3\/5<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-contrast-color\">after doing a little bit of math we see that she is indifferent when her belief that player 1 is robust exactly equals 3\/5<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-contrast-color\">as we alluded to a second ago the trick here is that her belief forms endogenously based on the vulnerable types strategy<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This marks the first time we need to use Bayes rule in a non trivial way for a perfect Bayesian equilibrium<br>We are looking for the vulnerable types mixed strategy that creates a p-value exactly equal to 3\/5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"668\" src=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-7-1024x668.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1652\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-7-1024x668.png 1024w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-7-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-7-768x501.png 768w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-7-1536x1003.png 1536w, https:\/\/saraheee.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-7-2048x1337.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-global-color-8-color\">\\(\\frac{3}{5} = \\frac{(.4)(1)}{(.4)(1) + (.6)(\\sigma_A)}\\)<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>by Bayes rule her belief that player 1 is robust equals the probability player 1 is robust and attacks divided by all of the possible ways she could observe an attack<br>well 40% of the time player 1 is robust and always attacks<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>this gives us the numerator<br>we also put that in the denominator but there is another way player 2 can observe an attack<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>60% of the time player 1 is vulnerable and it attacks Sigma A portion of the time<br>so we add that to the denominator<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-global-color-8-color\">3(.4)(1) + 3(.6)(\\(\\sigma_A\\)) = 5(.4)(1)<br>1.2 + 1.8\\(\\sigma_A\\) = 2<br>1.8\\(\\sigma_A\\) = .8<br>\\(\\sigma_A\\) = 4\/9<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>from here it is just a matter of solving for Sigma A<br>working through the math we arrive at Sigma a equal to 4\/9<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>by exploiting the necessary indifference conditions we have arrived at all of the elements of a perfect bayesian equilibrium<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Semi-Separating Equilibrium<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Robust type attacks<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vulnerable type attacks with probability 4\/9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>After observing Player 1 attack, Player 2 believes he is robust with probability 3\/5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Player 2 resists with probability 1\/3<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>to recap the robust type always attacks the vulnerable type only attacks with probability 4\/9<br>after observing player in one attack player two believes he is robust with probability 3\/5<br>she then resists with probability 1\/3<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>because of all the indifference conditions the algorithm to solve for semi-separating equilibria is tougher than pooling and separating equilibria<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reference: William Spaniel, Game Theory 101 (#82): Semi-Separating Equilibrium\/Partially-Pooling Equilibrium, May 20, 2019,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/h3JQYd4BFGk\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/h3JQYd4BFGk<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This lecture introduces semi-separating equilibrium as a type of perfect Bayesian equilibrium for signaling games. A less popular but still equivalent name for it is partially-pooling equilibrium.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[92,4,89,91,90],"class_list":["post-1610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-game-theory-and-applications","tag-equilibrium","tag-game-theory","tag-jul-2-2023","tag-partially-pooling","tag-semi-separating"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1610"}],"version-history":[{"count":46,"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1679,"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610\/revisions\/1679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saraheee.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}